A lot of factors impact market share. Marketing spend and Competition's offerings are just a couple of them, whose data is usually not available during the plan design process.
In reality, "potential market share" is most useful as a comparison metric for evaluating various plan design alternatives.
How accurate are the Models? We used our AI/ML Models to predict 2023 enrollment by MA Plan and County
, while AEP was still in its early stages. Take a look.